Friday, September 19, 2008
CPI(M) = CHINESE PARTY OF INDIA (MARXIST) ??
The bonhomie between China and the Bengali Marxists continue. Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi inaugurated the Chinese consulate in Kolkata on Sunday 7th September 2008. CPI(M) manages to, deliberately or not, look like the Chinese foreign policy arm in India. It is not only the NSG, but its entire likes and dislikes mirror that of the Chinese.
But does the opening of the new consulate portend growing friendliness between India and China. Far from it : NSG & CHINA – In 3 steps below.
1. High drama at NSG : India is miffed at China antagonistic role at the Nuclear Supplier’s group where China asked for Indian parity with Pakistan and requested additional resources from New Delhi which India may have considered very demeaning and akin to extracting a pound of flesh at a critical juncture.
2. When the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh tried to call the Chinese President Hu Jintao, the Chinese refused to take the call of the Indian Prime Minister and continued to snub the PM until the Americans intervened.
3. All the Indians could do was sulk. In retaliation, the angry Sonia Gandhi refused to see the Chinese Foreign Minister. To intimidate China, India last week announced the resurrection of forward air-force bases in the Northeast and Northwest.
A Pakistani think tank report stated : Beijing is ready to offer Pakistan a similar Nuclear deal that India got from the US. However Indian analysts who do not understand Chinese-Pakistani relations are expecting a public signing of a Pakistani-Sino deal in the same fashion as the Indo-US deal was announced. China and Pakistan work at different levels. The major difference is the Chinese Nuclear deal does not come with any strings and is cheaper. China has already built the Chasnupp 1 and the Chasnupp 2. To avoid a lot of publicity, the last time Pakistan and China worked out a nuclear deal (Chasnupp 2) it was announced without any pomp and ceremony.
An upgrade to the Gwader-China road and rail link is expected to bring huge benefits to the FATA that has already been signed between the two countries.
India today can block Chinese ships in the Indian ocean and this may prove decisive in any conflict with the Chinese. The Chinese do not have any aircraft carriers, but they will in 5 to 10 years time. Gwadar port in Pakistan gives them a chocking point with which to strangulate India with its “bead of pearls”. India may have constructed Chabahar port in Iran, but will it be enough?
The sad truth is that India is losing influence to the Chinese amongst all its neighbours, barring Bhutan.
Pakistan is long gone to the Chinese.
Nepal has a Maoist government sympathetic to China, its Premier visited China first in a break of protocol. India used to be the first port of call.
Chinese have started supplying missiles and launch pads to Bangladesh. The Chinese have supplied C-802A anti ship cruise missiles to Bangladesh which have a 120 kms range. With superior anti-jamming facilities, it hit ratio is an exceptional 98%.
The Chinese have supplied sophisticated 3D radars to Sri Lanka. To add insult to injury, Sri Lankan army has started buying Pakistani weapons using Iranian money. India supplied 2 D radars and clearly managed this game badly. We should have offered 3 D radars and avoided this.
Having said that, given the chaos in Kashmir and in Pakistan, India is faced with an extremely cunning and hostile China.
However, it is extremely difficult, if not impossible, for Chinese to attack India and win a war (I will give a Stratfor article that will explain all this excellently), but they can take Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh, and that will be a major psychological blow for India. Some battles are not won in the battlefields only!
India’s options :
1. Air force multiplers to be based in North East & Ladakh: Status – In Progress (The IAF is on course to base two squadrons (some 40 aircraft) of Sukhois, which have a cruising speed of 3,200 km, at Tezpur to counterbalance a Chinese threat on the eastern front. The air force has contracted some 230 Sukhoi-30MKI fighters from Russia in orders totaling over US $ 8.5-billion. The Ladakh sector has come to occupy lofty status in the IAF’s calculus as was evident when it reactivated the 2.1-km airstrip at Daulat Beg Oldi (DBO) in northeastern Ladakh after 43 years.)
2. Army commando units based in forward positions – Done
3. Strengthen Tawang area by infrastructure, dams etc. Status – Not happening
4. Cross over to Chinese side and cause incursions – Not happening.
5. Internal sabotage through Tibetians and false flag recruitments of Uighur Muslims.
6. Giving Brahmos and other top range missiles to Singapore, Philippines, Vietnam, S.Korea, Taiwan (countries that view China with animosity).
7. China is pushing 500 million people from farms and villages into cities too soon. Although it gets almost no publicity, China is experiencing hundreds of demonstrations around the country, which is unprecedented. These are not students in Tiananmen Square. These are average citizens who are angry with the government for building chemical plants and polluting the water they drink and the air they breathe. India should extend help to FALUN GONG and many other anti-establishment groups (incl martial arts groups, theatre & arts groups etc) and create dissension.
Given the population graph, India can go into China and take Mt. Kailash – it is India’s and ordained in our sacred texts. China's underbelly is very sparsely populated. It is a price the Chinese should be made to pay for sitting on Aksai Chin. Sometimes, one has to shed inhibitions and project force. Psy-ops cannot be one sided.
How can India take over Mt Kailash? Well India will not, Tibet will. And Tibet being hostlile to China will lease or hand over the region to India. Hence India should start preparing the Tibetians for armed struggle against the Chinese. Tibet is the soft underbelly and a strong guirella force of 50,000 battle hardened (taken from ITBP and infiltrated back to China) would cause enough unrest. Simultaneously help mass uprisings in Chinese villages against mainland city centric China. India's goal should be Tibetian independance. Will write on this at a later blog.
And CPI(M) should be made to understand once and for all, CHINA is NOT A FRIEND OF INDIA. Not at all !!!